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Japanese yen surges after hitting 34-year low
  + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapanese yen surges after hitting 34-year lowMarc Chandler, Bannockburn Global Forex chief market strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss news of the Japanese yen popping yesterday after a suspected intervention from the Japanese government, impact of the Fed's interest rate path on the yen, and more.
Persons: Marc Chandler Organizations: Bannockburn Global Forex Locations: Bannockburn
Dollar steady as sticky inflation dents rate cut expectations
  + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
United States one dollar bills are curled and inspected during production at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington. The dollar was steady on Monday after data last week showing U.S. inflation remained sticky cast doubts on when the Federal Reserve would start its easing cycle, while the yen remained rooted near the psychologically key 150 per dollar level. Chandler said there appears little on the charts to deter a test to last year's low of 152 per dollar level. Several Fed officials including Christopher Waller and Raphael Bostic are also due to speak this week. The Australian dollar rose 0.29% to $0.655, while the New Zealand dollar advanced 0.34% to $0.614.
Persons: Marc Chandler, Chandler, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Wong, BOE Organizations: Engraving, Federal Reserve, of Finance, Bannockburn Global, Data, Citi, Investor, Bank of England's, New Zealand Locations: United, Washington, Bannockburn, Bannockburn Global Forex
[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. ET (1500 GMT) with a 152 strike price, analysts said. The dollar shot to 151.92 yen at 9:42 a.m. (1442 GMT), its highest level since October 2022, and then tumbled to 151.20 minutes after the strike price. Earlier, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would keep monitoring the currency market and respond appropriately. The yen is down almost 14% against the dollar this year.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shunichi Suzuki, Marc Chandler, It's, Chandler, Jerome Powell, Geoff Yu, Sterling, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, David Cameron, Suella Braverman, Dhara Ranasinghe, Brigid Riley, Emelia Sithole, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Japanese Finance, Bank of Japan, Bannockburn Global, United Auto Workers, Federal Reserve, BNY Mellon, British, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, New York, U.S, Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO
U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. "If you look at the percentage of currencies that have been down versus the dollar over the last 26 weeks, it was approaching 100%, and data also showed very long dollar positioning ... Traders are now pricing in only a slim chance of a further interest rate increase by the Fed and see three 25-basis-point rate cuts by next November. The euro fell 0.20% to $1.0695 after data showed a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Chester Ntonifor, Chandler, Powell, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Fiona Cincotta, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Paul Simao, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Australian, greenback, Fed, Bannockburn Global, BCA Research, Traders, . Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, PMI, Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, U.S, Bannockburn, New York, London, Singapore
U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. The dollar index which tracks the U.S. unit against six main peers, was up 0.37% at 105.64. If that continues, he added, attention will turn to how long to keep interest rates at current levels. The euro fell 0.37% to $1.0677 after data showed a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Marc Chandler, Chester Ntonifor, Chandler, Powell, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Fiona Cincotta, Carol Kong, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Australian, Fed, Bannockburn Global, BCA Research, Traders, Minneapolis, . Chicago Fed, PMI, Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bannockburn, New York, Tokyo, London, Singapore
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda attends a press conference after its policy meeting in Tokyo, Japan October 31, 2023, in this photo taken by Kyodo. In addition, interest rate changes were asymmetric — Fed rate hikes following stock market recoveries were usually muted compared with the initial cuts. This was an explicit, open-ended policy to hold the currency at a set level and flood the Swiss economy and markets with oceans of liquidity, but essentially still a central bank put. As Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex points out, it is financial stability that is ultimately - and rightly - at the heart of the so-called central bank put. "There is a perception or myth that has built up around the central bank put.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Alan Greenspan, Louis, William Poole, Greenspan, Steven Englander, Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Japan, Kyodo, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Louis Fed, Swiss National Bank, Standard Chartered, National Bureau of Economic Research, Swiss, Reuters, Bannockburn Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, New York, Switzerland, Swiss, Bannockburn
Retail sales rose 0.7% last month as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and spent more at restaurants and bars. Despite the positive sales, Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, noted that there are some headwinds affecting U.S. consumers. "Investors need to look underneath the sales figures to get a better look on the health of the consumer. Rising use of credit and early signs of delinquencies could dampen some of the enthusiasm," he said in a note. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 43% chance of an additional interest rate hike this year, but only 12% odds of a rate increase next month, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, , Marc Chandler, Jeffrey Roach, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, Sterling, Karen Brettell, Samuel Indyk, Emelia Sithole, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bannockburn Global Forex, LPL Financial, Fed, Richmond Fed, Traders, Bank of Japan, U.S, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bannockburn
[1/2] Euro and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The euro fell 0.19% to $1.0566 but the dollar index , a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, retreated 0.16% after earlier trading higher. The Japanese yen , another traditional safe-haven currency, edged higher 0.57% higher to 148.47 per dollar. Net long positions on the dollar rose to a one-year high, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the net long dollar position was $10.55 billion for the week ended Oct. 6.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Benjamin Netanyahu, Brad Bechtel, Bechtel, Marc Chandler, I'm, Chandler, Sterling, Swedish krona, Paul Mackel, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Christina Fincher, Mark Potter, Will Dunham, Leslie Adler Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Israel, FX, Jefferies, Hamas, Bannockburn Global, U.S ., Canadian, New, Norwegian, U.S . Commodity Futures, Commission, Federal Reserve, Group, HSBC, Golden, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, Israeli, New York, Japan, Bannockburn, New Zealand, Swedish, U.S, Asia, London, Singapore
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The dollar fell as low as 147.30 yen versus the Japanese currency, after hitting a one-year high of 150.165. Tuesday's low in the dollar was its weakest level in three weeks versus the Japanese currency. The euro dropped to a roughly two-month low against the yen of 154.39 yen and was last down 0.7% to 155.99. That earlier drove the dollar higher as real interest rates factor in inflation.
Persons: Florence Lo, Shunichi Suzuki, Colin Asher, Sterling, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Herbert Lash, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Lucy Raitano, Joice Alves, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Japan, Japanese Finance, New York Federal Reserve, Mizuho, Bannockburn Global, U.S . Labor, Labor, Survey, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: Japan, London, Bannockburn, New York
Dollar weakens against the yen after yen breaches key 150 level
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The Japanese yen has fallen about 25% year-to-date against the greenback. The sharp move lower suggested the Bank of Japan had intervened in the market to keep the yen from falling further. "The continued uptrend in UST-JGB encouraged the 150 to be breach in the wake of the better-than-expected JOLTS data. The dollar slipped 0.51% against the yen to 149.08 after hitting 150.165 on the JOLTS report. The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six peers, was up 0.13% at 107.16, at its highest since November.
Persons: Michael Brown, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Stretch, Shunichi Suzuki, Wei Liang Chang, Russia's rouble Organizations: greenback, The, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, Trader, Bannockburn Global, U.S, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Finance, DBS, Strong U.S, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss Locations: London, Bannockburn, New York, United States, Europe
[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. The sharp move lower suggested the Bank of Japan had intervened in the market to keep the yen from falling further. "It has all the hallmarks of intervention in all honesty," said Michael Brown, market analyst at Trader X in London. "The continued uptrend in UST-JGB encouraged the 150 to be breach in the wake of the better-than-expected JOLTS data. The dollar slipped 0.51% against the yen to 149.08 after hitting 150.165 on the JOLTS report.
Persons: Florence Lo, Michael Brown, Marc Chandler, Jeremy Stretch, JGB, Stretch, Shunichi Suzuki, Wei Liang Chang, Russia's rouble, Herbert Lash, Brigid Riley, Alun John, Joice Alves, Kevin Buckland, Marguerita Choy, Sharon Singleton Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, New York Federal Reserve, Trader, Bannockburn Global, CIBC Capital Markets, UST, Finance, DBS, Strong U.S, Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Swiss, Thomson Locations: London, Bannockburn, New York, United States, Europe, Tokyo
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.399% overnight in Asia, its highest rate since early November 2007, and the two-year yield rose further above 5%. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.27%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 1.05%, hit by lowered growth outlooks. CENTRAL BANKSGlobal central banks take stage, with five of those overseeing the 10 most-heavily traded currencies holding rate-setting meetings this week. A swathe of emerging market central banks including Turkey and South Africa will also meet. The Swedish crown sank to a record low against the euro on Monday, days before the Riksbank is expected to raise interest rates again.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, BOE, Brent, Marc Chandler, Chandler, Saira Malik, France's, Stocks, Xi, Kazuo Ueda, Herbert Lash, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara, Stella Qiu, Philippa Fletcher, Alexander Smith, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Global, Federal, United Auto Workers, Detroit Three, Bannockburn Global, U.S, Societe Generale, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, China Evergrande, HK, CENTRAL, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Bannockburn, New York, Asia, Turkey, South Africa, Swedish, London, Sydney
China property woes, geopolitical tensions and ongoing strikes also stoked worries about global growth. CENTRAL BANKSGlobal central banks take centre stage, with five of those overseeing the 10 most heavily traded currencies holding rate-setting meetings this week. A swathe of emerging market central banks such as Turkey and South Africa will also meet. In currency markets, the dollar drifted lower with the dollar index last down a touch at 105.24 but within sight of recent six-month highs. The euro gained about 0.1% to $1.0663, after slumping to a 3-1/2 month low of $1.0632 last week as the European Central Bank signalled its rate hikes could be over.
Persons: BOE, BOJ, France's, Taiwan's TSMC, Xi, James Rossiter, Rossiter, Marc Chandler, Goldman Sachs, Kazuo Ueda, Nell Mackenzie, Stella Qiu, Dhara, Philippa Fletcher, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Societe Generale, China Evergrande, HK, Technology, Reuters, TD Securities, Japan's Nikkei, Brent, . West Texas, Federal Reserve, Bannockburn Global, CENTRAL, Global, Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Treasury, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, China, United States, Japan, Scandinavia, Switzerland, Britain, Asia, U.S, London, Bannockburn, Turkey, South Africa, Europe, SYDNEY
The greenback hit 146.75 Japanese yen, the highest since Nov. 9, and last traded at 146.51, up 0.05% on the day. Traders are watching out for any signs of intervention in the currency market from Japanese authorities as the yen weakens. The euro has weakened against the greenback for the past month due to the diverging economic outlooks for each region. China's yuan steadied against the dollar, buoyed by the Chinese central bank persistently setting stronger-than-expected daily-mid-points. The China-sensitive Australian dollar rose 0.32% to $0.6423, having taken a beating this month as worries over China's sputtering post-pandemic recovery weighed on sentiment.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, , Marc Chandler, Tommy Wu, Karen Brettell, Joice Alves, Kirsten Donovan, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of America, Federal, Treasury, Bank of Japan, greenback, Bannockburn Global, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, Europe, Bannockburn, New York, China, Commerzbank, London
[1/2] Euro currency bills are pictured at the Croatian National Bank in Zagreb, Croatia, May 21, 2019. The euro hit its lowest since mid-June at around $1.0766 before drifting higher. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, rose to 104.31, the highest since June 6, but edged lower during London trade. Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at 1405 GMT, while ECB chief Christine Lagarde speaks at the same gathering later in the day. Sterling touched its lowest level since June at around $1.2560 before recovering to around $1.2610 to trade just a touch softer on the day.
Persons: Antonio Bronic, Fed's Powell, Jerome Powell, Powell, Christine Lagarde, Jeremy Stretch, Sterling, Marc Chandler, Dhara Ranasinghe, Ankur Banerjee, Kirsten Donovan, Christina Fincher Organizations: Croatian National Bank, REUTERS, Central Bank, Federal, Reuters, Jackson, ECB, CIBC, Bannockburn Global Forex, Thomson Locations: Zagreb, Croatia, London, Britain, U.S, Bannockburn, Singapore
Dollar gains after Fed loan survey, yen slips
  + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.28% after trading little changed earlier in the session. The euro retreated from early gains after data showed economic growth in Europe nudged higher and inflation ticked lower. The dollar advanced 0.78% against the yen at 142.250 after a fresh intervention by the BoJ on Monday. The dollar posted its first monthly loss against the yen since March, and its second successive monthly loss against the euro and pound. The euro earlier rose after data showed euro zone inflation fell further in July, while the bloc returned to growth in the second quarter of 2023 with a greater-than-expected expansion.
Persons: Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jackson, Joe Manimbo, Sterling, BoE, Herbert Lash, Alun John, Rae Wee, Himani Sarkar, Kim Coghill, Christina Fincher, Mark Heinrich, Deepa Babington Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Survey, Bannockburn Global, Index, Bank of Japan, China's State, Federal, Market, Central Bank, Rabobank, ECB, Bank of England's, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, New York, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington, Europe, Asia, China, London, Singapore
Dollar decline slows as investors wait on Fed
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
This week is likely to see the dollar consolidate as investors wait on the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, when the U.S. central bank is expected to hike rates by an additional 25 basis points. The pace of last week’s dollar decline “seemed unusually large,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York, noting that the market should steady and see a firmer dollar this week. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in an additional 32 basis points of tightening with the benchmark rate expected to peak at 5.40% in November. The dollar index was last down 0.12% at 99.832, after falling to 99.574 on Friday, the lowest since April 2022. The dollar dipped 0.07% against the Japanese yen to 138.65, after dropping to 137.245 on Friday, the lowest since May 17.
Persons: , Marc Chandler, Francesco Pesole, Bundesbank, Joice Alves, David Holmes, Andrea Ricci Organizations: YORK, Federal, Bannockburn Global, Treasury, ING, International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bannockburn, New York, Germany, London
Macklem came under a rare attack last year from opposition politicians for misjudging inflation and locking in to a rigid forward guidance. "We are turning the corner on inflation," Macklem told reporters in January when the BoC became the first major central bank to announce a pause. The central bank's tightening campaign is a major concern for Canadians who loaded up on cheap mortgages and took on credit card and other debt in recent years. "Now maybe you're getting a certain maturity of the central bank that says, 'We're not going to do that again,'" Holt said. He assured Canadians during the pandemic that rates would rise only in 2023 when it expected the economic slack to be absorbed, but the central bank began hiking rates in March 2022 as inflation spiked.
Persons: Derek Holt, Macklem, Holt, Marc Chandler, Steve Scherer, Fergal Smith, Denny Thomas, Matthew Lewis Organizations: OTTAWA, Bank of Canada, BoC, Scotiabank ., Canadian Real Estate Association, Bannockburn Global Forex, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, Ottawa, Toronto
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.0 from 46.9 in May, the lowest reading since May 2020. "The ISM saw the dollar pare its earlier gains," he said. The yield on interest rate-sensitive two-year Treasuries fell on the news, before later heading higher, as did the dollar. The yen fell to near eight-month lows against the dollar as intervention came into sight after Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned on Friday against investors selling the yen too far as it weakened past the threshold of 145 to the dollar. The Japanese yen weakened 0.17% versus the greenback to 144.59 per dollar.
Persons: Marc Chandler, pare, Treasuries, Shunichi Suzuki, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, David Evans, Conor Humprhies, Christina Fincher Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Bannockburn Global, Japan, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, New York, China, London, Singapore
A handful of hard-right Republican lawmakers said on Monday they would oppose a deal to raise the United States' $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. "Still, a higher debt ceiling and some reduction in spending in the FY24 budget are the middle ground." "Outside of any volatility generated by the debt ceiling issues, expectations for Fed rate hikes are likely to keep the dollar bid in the near term." Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rallied in Asia on Tuesday on the debt ceiling deal. Until then, higher U.S. Treasury yields and weak expectations for BoJ tightening can push USD/JPY higher."
Dollar eases as deal over U.S. debt ceiling lifts risk appetite
  + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
A handful of hard-right Republican lawmakers said on Monday they would oppose a deal to raise the United States' $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. "Still, a higher debt ceiling and some reduction in spending in the FY24 budget are the middle ground." "Outside of any volatility generated by the debt ceiling issues, expectations for Fed rate hikes are likely to keep the dollar bid in the near term." Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rallied in Asia on Tuesday on the debt ceiling deal. Until then, higher U.S. Treasury yields and weak expectations for BoJ tightening can push USD/JPY higher."
Dollar gains on resilient U.S. economy, flight to safety
  + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
"If you consider global data of late, it's painting a more resilient picture of the U.S. economy than what's going on in Europe," he said. The dollar index , which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers, hit 103.91, its highest since March 20. "The U.S. dollar has been rallying more or less for three weeks helped by stronger-than-expected data and rising U.S. interest rates," he said. The Swedish currency hit 11.541 crowns per euro, its weakest against the common currency since March 2009. The dollar strengthened 0.82% against the crown , while the New Zealand dollar slid 2.29% against the U.S. currency to 0.61050.
Persons: Joe Manimbo, Manimbo, Marc Chandler, Chandler, We're, Simon Harvey Organizations: Reserve, Bannockburn Global, U.S, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, European Central Bank, New, New Zealand, Bank, England, Bank of England Locations: Washington, U.S, Europe, Bannockburn, New York
The greenback took an early dive after data showed the New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index plunged to -31.8 this month from a reading of 10.8 in April. "The things that have weighed on the dollar recently have not gone away, such as the debt ceiling, even though there has been some progress made." In late morning trading the dollar index , which measures the greenback's value against six major peers, fell 0.2% to 102.48. Analysts have said many factors could be behind the dollar's recent strength, including concerns about U.S. inflation and safe-haven buying driven by fears about the debt ceiling standoff and global economic growth. It earlier jumped to 19.7 for the first time since March 10, when it hit a record high of 19.8 on a volatile trading day.
The dollar fell to a more than one-week low against major currencies on Monday in generally thin trading, as investors continued to price in interest rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve after a widely expected rate increase at next week's policy meeting. Fed policymakers are widely expected to raise rates by another 25 bps at next week's meeting, but they are seen pausing in June. The rate futures market has also factored in roughly 50 bps of rate cuts by the end of the year. There were likewise hawkish remarks from Belgian central bank chief and ECB policy maker Pierre Wunsch. Beyond the excitement of the euro/yen cross, currency markets were quiet, as traders waited for key central bank meetings, the first of which is the BOJ on Friday, the first Ueda will chair.
SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher on Monday after the April survey of business activity in New York state rose for the first time in five months and bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in May. The new orders index rose 47 points to 25.1, while the shipments index added 37 points to 23.9, substantial increases after they had declined in recent months, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said. "It's the best reading since last July with a big jump in orders and has taken the dollar higher on this," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. The outlook of U.S. interest rates relative to the monetary policies and economies of other countries can boost or erode the dollar's value. The Mexican peso lost 0.51% versus the dollar to trade at 18.12, while the Canadian dollar fell 0.31% versus the greenback to 1.34 per dollar.
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